The US economy has been on a roller coaster ride in the past two years. While the Covid-19 virus has shut down a large part of our economy and has caused high unemployment rates in many service sectors, the US government’s massive fiscal and monetary stimulus response also brought on the fastest economic recovery in…
It seems like every year our weather is getting more extreme. Last week, the Pacific Northwest experienced record-breaking 110 degree weather. Last winter, Texas experienced a major snow storm that caused an electric grid failure and widespread power outage for around 10 million people over several freezing days. Worldwide, heatwaves and snowstorms have become more…
Covid-19’s impact on the economy and society While several Covid-19 vaccines have been approved globally, we believe that their mass production and distribution will take many months and it will likely take the whole year of 2021 before most of the world population are vaccinated. There is also a risk that the current Covid-19 virus…
The coronavirus pandemic has turned our world upside down in the past few months. We have entered a new normal where many of our social and work activities have shifted online. We feel fortunate that global technology has developed rapidly in recent years so the world can continue its basic function under the current social…
The global economy entered a recession in the first half of 2020. OECD issued a global GDP baseline forecast of -6% in 2020, and GDP of -7.6% in a downside COVID-19 scenario. Geopolitical conflict and civil unrest continue to flare up in China/Hong Kong, the US and many parts of the world. A typical investor…
During the current Covid-19 outbreak in the last three months, we have observed investors continue to make many common mistakes in investing. We cannot help but notice that human nature have not changed much in past decades. The same mistakes are being made over and over again by investors. Here we discuss and elaborate on…
A pandemic with unprecedented social-economic impact The Covid-19 pandemic has become the one of most devastating global social-economic events in many decades. As of early April, the global death toll has reached almost 90000. The crisis has led to an almost complete shutdown of major global economies and an accelerated shift of most daily activities…
Shock events like pandemic and natural disaster are unavoidable It is important to note that pandemic, epidemic, and disaster are unavoidable events in human history. In recent years, we have seen numerous major natural disasters including the 2011 earthquake/tsunami in Japan (16000 deaths), 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake/tsunami (230,000 deaths), 2003 European heat wave (70000 deaths)….
Keeping Things in Perspective Today, many investors are worried about the presidential election in 2020, US/China prolonged trade war and the associated market volatility, we remind ourselves that stock investing is a long-term activity and represents partial ownership of dynamic, real-life businesses. A good business with a capable management team should be able to navigate…
Goldilocks economy in the US – not too hot and not too cold The US economy is currently in an ideal state with moderate but sustainable 2-3% annual growth, full employment, and low inflation. It is not too hot such that wages, commodity prices and inflation will rise and cause the Fed to raise interest…
